A newly discovered asteroid is making waves in the scientific community after NASA confirmed that its chances of striking Earth in 2032 have increased.
NASA initially estimated that asteroid 2024 YR4 - which was first spotted on December 27, 2024 - had a 1.2% chance of colliding with Earth.
However, that probability has since nearly doubled to 2.3% (or 1 in 43), raising some eyebrows among astronomers.
While still highly unlikely, the increase is enough to keep scientists on high alert.
The agency has emphasized that this probability could shift again as more observations refine the asteroid’s trajectory. “It is also possible its impact probability will continue to rise,” NASA noted in a blog post.
How Big Is It and What Would Happen If It Hits?Current estimates suggest that 2024 YR4 measures between 130 feet and 300 feet across, meaning it is potentially roughly the size of Cinderella’s Castle at Walt Disney World.
If it were to strike Earth, NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) predicts it would do so at a blistering speed of 38,000 mph.
While not an extinction-level event (big sigh of relief), an impact of this magnitude could cause significant local damage (and back to being nervous).
Tracking and Observing the Space RockThe asteroid was first detected by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) station in Chile. Since then, astronomers have been closely monitoring its movements using ground-based telescopes, including the 8.1-meter Gemini South telescope in the Chilean Andes.
On February 7, 2025, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center astronomer Bryce Bolin helped capture an image of 2024 YR4 when it was about 37 million miles from Earth.
Speaking about the discovery, Bolin told Space.com: "I find 2024 YR4 to be extremely exciting! Not only because of its notoriety but for the scientific potential of studying such a small asteroid in high detail."
He explained that observing the asteroid was particularly tricky due to its faint brightness, moonlight interference, and its movement speed of 0.26 arcseconds per minute.
Astronomer David Rankin, who has been tracking the asteroid since its discovery, reassured the public that the increasing odds of impact were expected and will likely decrease as scientists gain a clearer understanding of its orbit.
What’s Next?Asteroid 2024 YR4 will remain visible to ground-based telescopes until April, after which it will fade from view until mid-2028.
However, NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will observe the asteroid in March to refine size estimates and better understand its composition.
For now, the risk remains extremely low, but all eyes are on this space rock as scientists continue to gather data.