A former Metropolitan police officer has discussed his three theories on what could have happened to Jay Slater.
As widely reported, Jay went missing on June 17 after going to an Airbnb of two British men he met while vacationing in Tenerife.
The 19-year-old British teen was attending the NRG music festival with his friends but after he informed Lucy Mae Law of his intention to walk 10 hours back to their accommodation, alarms were raised an hour later.
It has been 11 days since the search for Slater began, and sadly at this time, there are no official updates or sightings.
Peter Kirkham, who has over two decades of experience in law enforcement, provided a detailed analysis as the search for Slater continues.
Kirkham shared his insights in an exclusive piece for the Mirror, outlining three main scenarios.
"In the circumstances as first reported, and in particular the last phone call he is known to have made, the most obvious theory is that Jay Slater became lost whilst trying to walk back through a remote and difficult area totally unknown to him,” Kirkham wrote.
“He may also have fallen into a ravine or something similar and have become injured and incapacitated.
"This possibility leads to the searches that we have seen the police make, but the area involved is so large that, even now, only a fraction can possibly have been thoroughly searched.
"Sadly, if this is the explanation after such an extended period missing, it is unlikely that Jay will be found alive."
Kirkham also explored the notion that Slater may have disappeared deliberately due to personal reasons, citing the teenager's “somewhat chequered past.”
He emphasized the importance of the Spanish authorities collaborating with Lancashire Police to delve into Slater's background.
“The police will be pursuing lines of inquiry related to his background and domestic circumstances to identify if this is a viable possibility,” Kirkham noted.
“This is an aspect of the investigation which the UK police will be far better placed to progress. I would hope that the Spanish authorities, who retain primacy in this investigation, have made contact with the Lancashire Police with a request to assist in this regard.”
The third possibility Kirkham raised is that Slater may have been kidnapped, either spontaneously or as part of a premeditated plan. He highlighted reports that Slater left his friends to accompany two men he had met while clubbing, a lead that warrants urgent investigation.
“The reports that Jay had left his friends and gone off with two men he had apparently just met whilst clubbing make this a possibility requiring urgent investigation,” Kirkham explained.
“The two men – who reportedly say that Jay left them in good health – are the key start point here, and the police in Tenerife should be prioritising investigation of this line of enquiry. If, as has been reported, the men are British and back in the UK, then this is again an area in which the UK authorities have hopefully been engaged to assist.”
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Kirkham added that a pre-planned abduction would likely involve individuals with significant criminal backgrounds or personal conflicts with Slater, such as debts or disputes over criminal activities.
“Taken together, these three basic categories of theory cover pretty much every possibility,” Kirkham concluded.
“In order to conduct a thorough and competent investigation, the police must keep an open mind and pursue lines of inquiry relating to all three of them.
"That said, in the real world of limited resources, it is inevitable and perfectly acceptable for the police to prioritize them.”