Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has predicted that American households could receive “very large refunds” during the upcoming tax filing season, thanks to provisions included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).
Speaking to NBC10 Philadelphia on Tuesday ahead of an event highlighting the Trump administration’s economic policies, Bessent said the new law is expected to have a significant impact on refunds for the 2025 tax year. He emphasized that retroactive elements of the legislation will affect what taxpayers owe on earnings from this year, creating the potential for larger-than-usual returns.
“The bill was passed in July. Working Americans didn’t change their withholding, so they’re going to be getting very large refunds in the first quarter,” Bessent told NBC10. “I think we’re going to see $100 to $150 billion in refunds, which could translate to between $1,000 and $2,000 per household.”
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Bessent explained that after the initial wave of refunds, taxpayers are expected to adjust their withholding for 2026, which could result in a tangible increase in take-home wages. “Then they’ll change their withholding, and they’ll get a real increase in their wages. So I think 2026 can be a very good year,” he said.
The Treasury Secretary’s remarks come as part of a broader effort by the administration to highlight measures intended to improve the financial situation of American households. Tax relief under the OBBBA has been presented as a cornerstone of this strategy, aimed at easing the burden on working families.
Beyond the retroactive refunds, the OBBBA extends certain elements of the 2017 Trump-era tax cuts that were due to expire at the end of this year. These include lower income tax rates and higher standard deductions, measures that would have otherwise been phased out, potentially leaving taxpayers facing higher liabilities in 2026.
President Trump weighed in on the upcoming tax season during a recent Cabinet meeting, calling it “projected to be the largest tax refund season ever,” highlighting the administration’s focus on tangible financial benefits for American families.
Economic conditions remain a concern for many households. A Fox News poll conducted in November showed roughly three-quarters of respondents viewed economic conditions negatively, citing rising costs for essentials such as groceries, housing, and healthcare. The larger refunds projected under the OBBBA could help families manage these pressures and shore up savings ahead of 2026.
Data from the IRS provides context for the scale of the potential impact. During the 2025 filing season, as of early April, the agency issued over $211 billion in refunds, with an average of $3,116 per taxpayer. By mid-October, the total had risen to $311 billion, though the average refund fell slightly to $3,052, with more than 102 million refunds issued by October 17.
With the new legislation set to take effect, households may see even greater financial relief, offering a boost to take-home income and easing the strain of rising living costs. Bessent framed the new law as a chance for Americans to benefit directly from policy changes, describing the upcoming tax season as potentially transformative for families across the country.