Just six months into President Trump’s second term, and the race to determine his successor is already heating up.
Behind the scenes, political strategists and party insiders are closely eyeing the 2028 landscape — and one name in particular is beginning to stand out.
A newly released national poll has tested voter sentiment across a range of hypothetical matchups between the Republican and Democratic parties, offering an early glimpse into who may have the edge in the next race to the White House. While opinions on the current administration remain deeply divided, especially on economic and foreign policy issues, one potential Republican candidate is quietly gaining momentum.
So, what are the results? Well, the Emerson College June poll suggests that Vice President JD Vance is currently the leading contender to succeed President Trump as the Republican nominee in the 2028 presidential election.
Vance is currently backed by 46% of Republican voters — leaving other high-profile names like Marco Rubio at 12% and Ron DeSantis at 9% trailing far behind.
And July's national poll - conducted by Emerson College between July 21 and 22 - surveyed 1,400 registered voters, and pitted Vance against three possible Democratic candidates: former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, California Governor Gavin Newsom, and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.).
In a hypothetical matchup with Buttigieg, Vance holds a narrow edge with 44% of support to Buttigieg’s 43%, while 13% of voters remain undecided.
Against Ocasio-Cortez, Vance leads 44% to 41%, with 15% undecided. The widest gap emerges in a potential race against Newsom, with Vance garnering 45% of the vote to Newsom’s 42%, and 13% still undecided.
“A key takeaway from the ballot tests is that about 13% of the electorate remains persuadable, while the other 87% have already settled on a party preference,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
Vance’s position comes as the Trump administration reaches the six-month mark of its second term.
The 79-year-old president currently holds a 46% job approval rating, with 47% disapproval - a one-point increase in both metrics since Emerson’s last national poll.
“About six months into the second Trump administration, the president’s approval rating has stabilized in the mid-40s, while his disapproval has steadily increased about a point each month since the inauguration and now stands at 47%,” Kimball noted.
Trump’s strongest support comes from men (53%), white voters (52%), and those over the age of 70 (53%). His approval is lowest among independents (38%), women (40%), Hispanics (38%), and Black voters (25%).
Voter sentiment on Trump’s handling of key issues remains divided as immigration received the most balanced response, with 45% approving and 46% disapproving.
Disapproval was highest on economic policy (51% disapprove, 41% approve) and tariffs (50% disapprove, 36% approve).
However, there has been some upward movement in foreign policy approval, as Kimball explained: “Since the 100-day poll, the largest shifts have come from a 10-point increase in approval on handling of Ukraine-Russia, from 27% to 37%, and an eight-point increase on Israel-Hamas, from 30% to 38%, though both of these issues are still 10 and 8 points underwater for Trump."
The administration’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files also remains a controversial topic, with 51% of voters disapproving, just 16% approving, and 33% remaining neutral. Notably, 42% of voters believe Epstein was murdered, while 20% believe he died by suicide. Belief in the murder theory has dropped by four points over the past five years.
Finally, the poll also examined public reaction to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, a key legislative effort of Trump’s second term.
While 33% of respondents believe it will positively impact their lives, 39% say it will have a negative effect, and 9% believe it won’t impact them at all.