President Donald Trump has repeatedly promised $2,000 tariff dividend checks to most Americans next year, raising hopes for a much-needed financial boost amid rising costs.
“We’ve taken in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariff money. We’re going to be issuing dividends… probably the middle of next year, a little bit later than that, of thousands of dollars for individuals of moderate income, middle income,” Trump said on Monday.
But economists and analysts caution that the odds of these checks actually hitting bank accounts are extremely low.
Credit: Leon Neal / Getty Images.
The Math Doesn’t Add Up
Perhaps the biggest roadblock? The numbers don’t add up. While new tariffs are projected to raise $158.4 billion in 2025 and $207.5 billion in 2026, estimates suggest the dividend checks would cost far more than that.
For example, a plan covering only tax filers and their spouses under a $100,000 income cap would cost $279.8 billion – already $121 billion over the projected 2025 revenue. More expansive scenarios including dependents and non-filers could reach $606.8 billion, nearly double the combined 2025–2026 tariff intake.
“This is like the magic money tree. You just go to it anytime you need money. Of course, that’s not reality,” Scott Lincicome, vice president of general economics at the Cato Institute, told CNN.
Congress May Not Approve
Even if the math worked, Congress would still need to sign off on the payments – and there’s little reason to think lawmakers would back another massive outlay. Republican deficit hawks have already opposed Trump’s previous tax and spending initiatives. With the national debt surpassing $38 trillion, a $2,000-per-person payout is politically fraught.
“I find it extremely implausible that Republican budget hawks are just going to be okay with blowing another $300 billion to $600 billion,” Lincicome added.
Could Checks Backfire?
Even if approved, economists warn that the payments could worsen inflation. Some Americans would spend the money immediately, boosting demand without increasing supply – a recipe for higher prices. Stimulus checks have been blamed, at least in part, for the 2021 inflation spike, and some Trump-era economists argue tax cuts are a better tool.
Stephen Moore, a former Trump economic adviser, told CNN: “If there is tariff revenue, that should be used to cut income taxes across the board. Stimulus checks only stimulate inflation.”
.jpg_70qiuU?tr=cr-0.0.1024.683,f-webp,q-75)
Credit: Andrew Harnik / Getty Images.
Legal Hurdles: The Supreme Court Factor
Finally, legal challenges loom. The Supreme Court recently questioned the legality of Trump’s global tariffs. If the court strikes down a majority of the new tariffs, around 75% of projected revenue could vanish, effectively ending the dividend plan before it begins.
Only a “Break-the-Glass” Scenario Could Save It
Experts agree: the only way $2,000 checks would actually materialize is if the U.S. economy faces a severe emergency – a recession, rising unemployment, or another crisis. In that case, the White House could argue that direct payments are necessary to stabilize the economy.
“It’s almost like we shouldn’t want stimulus checks to happen,” said Ed Mills, a Washington policy analyst. “This is a break-the-glass, use-in-case-of-emergency tool.”