President Donald Trump made waves over the weekend after promising a $2,000 payout to most Americans, money he claimed would come from the country’s tariff revenue.
Taking to his social media platform, Truth Social, on Sunday, Trump said he intends to deliver a “dividend” to citizens, likening it to a national bonus funded by trade tariffs.
"People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS! We are now the Richest, Most Respected Country In the World, With Almost No Inflation, and A Record Stock Market Price. 401k's are Highest EVER," the president wrote.
"A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone."
“We are now the richest, most respected country in the world, with almost no inflation, and a record stock market price.”
The post immediately went viral, sparking comparisons to the pandemic-era stimulus checks that were sent out under Trump’s administration.
But within hours, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appeared to walk back the promise, or at least cast serious doubt on it.
Donald Trump. Credit: Samuel Corum / Getty Images.
Treasury Secretary Pushes Back
Appearing on ABC News’ This Week on Sunday, Bessent said he hadn’t discussed the proposal directly with Trump and suggested the “dividend” might simply refer to tax savings from Trump’s recent domestic spending bill.
“It could be just the tax decreases that we are seeing on the president's agenda, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security,” Bessent explained.
“Those are substantial deductions that are being financed in the tax bill.”
He went on to clarify that the “real goal” of Trump’s tariff strategy is to “rebalance trade and make it more fair,” not necessarily to hand out cash payments.
How Would the $2,000 ‘Tariff Dividend’ Work?
While Trump didn’t outline specifics, the term “dividend” typically refers to a payout made to shareholders from company profits.
In this case, Trump suggested the government would distribute funds to citizens using revenue generated from tariffs, essentially taxes on imported goods.
The idea mirrors the three stimulus checks Americans received during the COVID-19 pandemic, totaling up to $3,200 per filer and $2,500 per child, according to the Pandemic Response Accountability Committee.
Trump emphasized that the new “dividend” would exclude “high-income people,” though he didn’t define what that threshold would be.
Is There Enough Tariff Revenue to Fund It?
Experts aren’t convinced the math adds up. If $2,000 payments were distributed to roughly 150 million Americans earning under $100,000, the program would cost around $300 billion.
As of September 30, the federal government had collected about $195 billion in tariff-related revenue, far less than what would be needed to fund the plan.
And when factoring in Trump’s most recent levies and their economic side effects, the Tax Foundation estimates only $90 billion in net tariff revenue is currently available, per The Guardian.
Donald Trump holds models of his Arc de Trump. Credit: Kevin Dietsch / Getty Images.
Legal and Fiscal Hurdles Ahead
The timing of Trump’s announcement is also notable, it comes just days after the Supreme Court heard arguments on whether a president has the constitutional authority to impose tariffs without congressional approval.
Even if the proposal were to move forward, experts warn that paying out such dividends could add to the national debt, which has already surpassed $38 trillion, according to the Treasury Department.
Still, Trump’s loyal base celebrated the idea online, praising it as a “bold, pro-American move.”
Others, however, questioned whether the so-called “tariff dividend” was another campaign-style promise that might never materialize.