Santa Claus isn’t the only thing soaring past Earth this holiday season.
NASA has issued a heads-up about a massive asteroid, 2024 XN1, which is set to zoom past the planet tonight.
Measuring the size of a 10-story building, the asteroid will make its closest approach just before 10:00PM EST, passing by at a distance of 4.48 million miles, according to NASA’s Asteroid Watch dashboard.
How Close is Close?
By interstellar standards, this counts as a “close approach". NASA defines near-Earth objects (NEOs) as celestial bodies that pass within 4.6 million miles of Earth. However, astronomers assure us there’s no cause for alarm.
“It will be very far away, around 18 times further away from the Earth than the Moon is, and so with this predicted path won’t come close enough to hit the Earth,” Jess Lee, an astronomer at the Royal Greenwich Observatory, told The Daily Mail.
If it were to collide, the impact would be catastrophic. The asteroid, which was first detected on December 12, is estimated to measure between 95 and 230 feet in diameter and is traveling at a blistering speed of 14,743 mph.
Scientists estimate such an impact would unleash energy equivalent to 12 million tons of TNT and devastate an area of roughly 700 square miles, per the New York Post.
Lee drew comparisons to the Tunguska Event of 1908, when a similarly sized asteroid exploded over Siberia, flattening 80 million trees across 800 square miles.
Rock Star’s Return? Not Until 2031
Following tonight’s close call, 2024 XN1 won’t be making another “Earth tour” until January 2031, when it will pass even closer, at 3.1 million miles. (Which is still a little too close for comfort for my liking!)
The next major celestial visitor, however, will arrive sooner. A 1,310-foot asteroid is expected to pass within 2.29 million miles of Earth on January 5, 2025, according to The Daily Mail.
Keeping an Eye on the Skies
While neither of these space rocks poses a threat, they highlight the importance of tracking NEOs.
NASA continuously monitors the orbits of such objects, refining predictions with each new observation.
“The orbit of each object is computed by finding the elliptical path through space that best fits all the available observations, which often span many orbits over many years or decades,” NASA explains. “As more observations are made, the accuracy of an object’s orbit improves dramatically, and it becomes possible to predict where an object will be years or even decades into the future – and whether it could come close to Earth.”
New advancements may make identifying potential threats even easier. Spanish scientists have developed a method to calculate the gravitational bending of light, allowing for more precise tracking of asteroids heading toward Earth.
For now, stargazers can rest easy as 2024 XN1 makes its distant holiday flyby — no cosmic coal in our stockings this year.
