As the war in Ukraine grinds into its third year with no clear end in sight, experts are sounding alarms that Russian President Vladimir Putin may already be laying the groundwork for a new military campaign — this time beyond Ukraine’s borders.
Despite international calls for de-escalation - including a fresh round of ceasefire negotiations led by US President Donald Trump - one intelligence analysts say Putin remains focused not on peace, but expansion.
The next potential target? Moldova, according to US intelligence expert Rebekah Koffler.
Signs of a new offensive strategy
Writing in The Telegraph, Koffler, a former US military intelligence analyst specializing in Russian strategy, warned that Moscow is preparing for another offensive military operation — possibly within just a few years.
“I agree with [NATO Secretary-General Mark] Rutte’s assessment about Russia’s readiness for another offensive military campaign,” she wrote. “What NATO does or doesn’t do in the next few years could be highly significant in determining whether Putin decides to attack another post-Soviet state – such as Moldova.”
While she is skeptical that a NATO country would be Putin’s immediate next target — unless the alliance sends troops directly into Ukraine — Koffler emphasized that Russia’s military doctrine is built on asymmetric warfare and indirect confrontation. This includes disrupting Western infrastructure, exploiting vulnerabilities, and using cyber operations, propaganda, and covert actions to destabilize targets before a full-scale military engagement.
Fears of wider conflict spreading across Europe
Concerns about Russia’s intentions beyond Ukraine aren’t limited to expert analysis.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) recently reported that Moscow may be positioning itself to intervene in Moldova and the Baltic states, under the guise of protecting its “compatriots abroad” — an argument that mirrors the one used to justify its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
The ISW’s warning reflects growing anxiety among NATO members and Eastern European nations about Russia’s broader ambitions, particularly as Russian military and cyber operations continue to escalate. Earlier this year, Russia’s GRU was linked to cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure sectors across NATO nations, including defense, transport, and IT networks.
The GRU’s operations reportedly extended into Romania, Moldova, and Ukraine, reinforcing fears that Russia is conducting “rehearsals” for wider conflict with NATO.
Trump, Starmer weigh in as war continues
Speaking alongside British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer on Monday in Turnberry, Scotland, President Trump reiterated his dissatisfaction with Putin’s actions, expressing disappointment over continued missile strikes in Ukraine.
“We thought we had it settled numerous times,” Trump said. “And then President Putin goes out and starts launching rockets into some city like Kyiv and kills a lot of people in a nursing home or whatever. You have bodies lying all over the street, and I say that’s not the way to do it.”
Trump has reportedly given Putin a 10–12 day window to enter ceasefire negotiations or face the threat of further sanctions. During his ongoing trip to Scotland, The Independent reports that Trump said he is considering bringing this new deadline forward to "tonight or tomorrow".
“I’m very disappointed. I’m disappointed in President Putin," Trump said. "Very disappointed in him. So we’re going to have to look, and I’m going to reduce that 50 days that I gave him to a lesser number.”
Meanwhile, the conflict shows no sign of abating. Over the weekend, Russian drone and missile strikes targeted Ukraine’s Sumy region, wounding four people. Russia also claimed to have downed 50 Ukrainian drones, while a separate attack near St. Petersburg killed one person and injured three others.
Why Moldova could be next
Moldova, a small non-NATO, post-Soviet nation that borders Ukraine, is seen as particularly vulnerable to Russian interference. It houses the Russian-backed breakaway region of Transnistria, which Moscow has used as a strategic foothold for decades.
Koffler warned that Russia could turn its focus on Moldova if NATO fails to shore up its own defenses and take proactive steps to understand and counter Russian military doctrine. “Strategy must be based on a deep understanding of the opponent’s way of war,” she said. “Money and technology do not by themselves prevent or win wars.”
Five strategic areas NATO must address
In her article, Koffler outlined five critical areas where NATO must act to deter further Russian aggression:
- Protect space-based assets – Russia is developing anti-satellite weapons, including lasers and orbital interceptors.
- Defend against cyber warfare – Russian cyber capabilities are among the most destructive in the world and could target vital infrastructure.
- Secure undersea cables and energy pipelines – Moscow’s deep-sea sabotage efforts have already raised alarms across the Baltic.
- Combat Russian espionage – Russian intelligence has conducted destabilization operations across Europe, and arrests are increasing.
- Build military manpower and capacity – Russia now produces more ammunition in three months than Europe does in a year, and recently proposed year-round conscription starting in 2026.
The cost of inaction
As the war in Ukraine drags on and casualties mount, Koffler argues that the West must not repeat past mistakes by underestimating Russia’s long-term objectives.
“It would be tragic if the alliance fails to step up to the plate now, especially given the colossal price Ukraine is paying,” she said. “NATO owes it to all those dead Ukrainians and their families to develop a viable counter-strategy to Putin’s playbook.”
The clock, it seems, is ticking — not only for Ukraine but for Europe as a whole.