President Donald Trump has once again floated the idea of issuing a fourth stimulus-style payment, this time in the form of a $2,000 dividend funded by tariff revenue.
But despite the buzz, Americans hoping for a payout before the New Year may have to wait.
On November 17, 2025, Trump addressed the timing of the proposed dividend, saying it would target “individuals of moderate income” and would likely be issued sometime in 2026, before the midterm elections.
He added: “We've taken in hundreds of millions of dollars in tariff money. We're going to be issuing dividends later on… of thousands of dollars for individuals of moderate income, middle income.”
Trump also emphasized that the plan would help reduce the growing national debt, stating that part of the tariff revenue would go toward paying down the $37 trillion debt while the remainder would be distributed as dividends.
However, he confirmed last Friday that checks will not be distributed before the holidays in 2025: “No, no. Not for this year. It'll be next year sometime.”
Credit: Leon Neal/Getty Images.
What Is a Tariff Dividend Payment?
Unlike a traditional stimulus check, a tariff dividend would be funded by government revenue from tariffs, rather than general federal funds.
Economists have raised questions about feasibility.
For example, Erica York, a policy expert at the Tax Foundation, noted on X: “If the cutoff is $100,000, 150 million adults would qualify, for a cost near $300 billion. Only problem, new tariffs have raised $120 billion so far.”
As of September 30, 2025, the federal government had collected $195 billion in tariff revenue, which falls short of covering the potential payout.
Officials suggest that future projected tariffs (estimated at $3 trillion over the next decade) could be used to fund the checks.
Who Would Qualify for the $2,000 Payment?
Trump has stated that the dividend would exclude high-income earners, focusing instead on middle- and lower-income Americans. Based on prior stimulus benchmarks:
- Middle-class households earn roughly $55,820 to $167,460 annually (per Pew Research Center definitions).
- Lower-income households earn less than $55,820.
- High-income households earn above $167,460, though eligibility could vary depending on family size and state cost of living.
For comparison, previous pandemic-era stimulus checks under Trump provided payments to individuals earning up to $75,000, with couples receiving up to $150,000, while higher earners were eligible for reduced amounts.
Previous Proposals for Stimulus or Dividend Payments
This is not Trump’s first attempt at alternative payouts:
1. July 2025: Trump proposed tariff rebate checks, later introduced as the American Worker Rebate Act by Sen. Josh Hawley, with potential payments ranging from $600 to $2,400 per family. The bill has yet to pass Congress.
2. February 2025: Trump suggested a $5,000 “DOGE dividend” tied to efficiency savings identified by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. Details remain limited.
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Donald Trump. Credit: Anna Moneymaker / Getty Images.
Income and Regional Considerations
Income classification in the U.S. can vary widely by location (per Smart Asset):
- High-income states: Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maryland, New Hampshire, California (median household income above $95,000).
- Low-income states: Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia, Mississippi (median household income below $60,000).
- High-income cities: Arlington, VA and San Jose, CA (median income above $136,000).
- Low-income cities: Cleveland, OH and Detroit, MI (median income below $40,000).
Bottom Line: Don’t Expect a Check in 2025
While speculation about a fourth stimulus or tariff dividend continues online, there is no official confirmation from Congress or the IRS.
Americans should treat early reports cautiously to avoid misinformation or potential scams.
Trump has made it clear: any $2,000 tariff dividend checks are expected in 2026, not before Christmas 2025.