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Earliest date that Donald Trump could be removed from office if he loses midterm elections
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The votes are still being counted after Tuesday's midterm elections, and the big question in US news this morning is what happens to Donald Trump if Democrats win back the House.
Impeachment has hung over the president for months, and he hasn't been shy about bringing it up on the campaign trail.
Speaking at a rally in Oklahoma, he said: "I've become very good at beating them in impeachment."
Back in January he sounded less relaxed when he told House Republicans he feared being impeached, saying: "You've got to win the midterms because, if we don't win the midterms, it's just going to be - I mean, they'll find a reason to impeach me."
Not everyone on the left wants it either, and Kamala Harris said recently: "I think that going in the direction of impeachment is not a good idea."
Others online were a lot more confident, with one X user predicting a 'bloodbath' for Republicans before the polls had even closed.
When the new Congress takes over in January 2027
If you're expecting fireworks this week, you'll be waiting a while.
The newly elected Congress is due to be sworn in at noon ET (17:00 UTC) on January 3, 2027, and Republicans keep control of the House until then.
January 3 falls on a Sunday next year, so the date could move back a day.
Democrats would then need to elect a speaker, most likely Hakeem Jeffries, and agree the House rules before anyone can bring articles of impeachment to a vote.
Impeaching a president in the House only takes a simple majority, so Democrats wouldn't need a single Republican on board.
How quickly the House could impeach Trump
Trump has been through this twice already, so there's a good guide to how fast it can move.
After the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021, the House impeached him a week later on January 13, skipping the usual committee hearings.
His Senate trial started on February 9 and he was acquitted four days later.
On the same timeline in 2027, you'd be looking at a House vote in mid-January at the earliest and a possible Senate verdict some time in February.
That makes February 2027 the earliest realistic point Trump could be removed, almost two years before his term ends in January 2029.
Why the Senate makes removing Trump so difficult
Actually getting him out is another matter, because the House only brings the charges and the Senate decides whether the president goes.
Conviction needs a two-thirds majority, which means 67 of the 100 senators.
Even on a great night for Democrats in the Senate, they'd need roughly 15 Republicans to cross over and vote against their own president.
For context, seven Republicans voted to convict Trump in 2021, the most bipartisan vote to convict a president in history, and the case still fell 10 votes short at 57-43.
If Republicans hold on to the Senate, their leaders would also have a big say over when any trial gets scheduled, which could drag the whole thing out.
Democrats could go after Pete Hegseth before Trump
There's also a decent chance Democrats leave Trump alone, at least to begin with.
A third impeachment of the same president would be unprecedented, and according to AP, some Democratic lawmakers are looking at members of his Cabinet instead.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth looks like the first in line.
At a rally in October, Jeffries said: "I'm here to say, one of the first things we're going to do in the majority, we're going to run Pete Hegseth out of town."
California Rep. Robert Garcia, who's set to take over the House Oversight Committee if Democrats win, has his own list of targets, including immigration enforcement, the Trump family's business dealings and the handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files.
Trump reckons he'll cope fine, telling reporters last week: "You have strong veto and you end up working out deals."
The 25th Amendment route and what it means for JD Vance
The other option people keep floating is the 25th Amendment, which has nothing to do with the midterms.
It would need JD Vance and most of Trump's Cabinet to declare him unfit for office, which is about as likely as Trump sending Jeffries a Christmas card this year.
Calls for it got loud back in April, with even Marjorie Taylor Greene demanding the 25th Amendment be used, but nobody in the Cabinet has budged.
The rules on how the 25th Amendment could remove Trump from office are strict, and it has never been used to sideline a sitting president against his will.
Either way, Vance would take over, as president after a conviction or as acting president under the 25th Amendment.
The results will also decide whether Americans ever see Trump's $5,000 check promise, since he tied it to Republicans keeping both chambers.