There's one big problem with Donald Trump's plan to give $2,000 to nearly every American.
Over the weekend, the 79-year-old fired off a Truth Social post claiming that the US is now rolling in "trillions of dollars" from tariffs - money he wants to hand back to the people.
“People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS! We are taking in Trillions of Dollars and will soon begin paying down our ENORMOUS DEBT, $37 Trillion. Record Investment in the USA, plants and factories going up all over the place," he wrote.
"A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high-income people!) will be paid to everyone," he added.
However, here's the problem: economists and budget experts argue that the numbers don’t add up, and legally, the entire plan might be hanging by a thread.
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Trillions in Revenue?
The president has turned tariffs into a cornerstone of his second-term economic policy, adding them to many goods such as drugs, steel, and cars.
However, despite his claim of “trillions” pouring in, the government’s actual tariff revenue tells a different story.
According to PBS News, the federal government collected $309.2 billion in tariffs at the end of October, up from $165.4 billion the year before. That’s a jump of $143.8 billion, but still miles away from the “trillions” Trump boasted about.
Erica York, vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation, shared a post on X that stated that a targeted payout to those earning under $100,000 would cost nearly $300 billion. And if kids are included, the price tag will increase.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that the plan could cost $600 billion, depending on how it’s structured. That’s double the revenue tariffs have raised to date.
Who Actually Gets the Cash?
The president's promise, so far limited to a series of posts on his social media platform, vaguely excludes “high income” earners, but offers zero clarification on where that line is drawn.
In a follow-up post shared on November 10, he wrote: “Low and middle income USA Citizens” would be first in line, with any leftover funds going to “substantially pay down national debt.”
But there’s no official guidance from the administration, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent even admitted he hadn’t spoken to Trump about the payouts.
“It could come in lots of forms, in lots of ways,” Bessent told ABC News. “You know, it could be just the tax decreases that we are seeing on the president's agenda. You know, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security. Deductibility of auto loans. So, you know, those are substantial deductions that, you know, are being financed in the tax bill."
But experts were quick to point out that these are existing tax cuts, not new dividend payouts.
Trump shared a follow-up post on November 10. Credit: Truth Social
Legal Trouble
The president's plan is also facing another massive legal hurdle.
The Supreme Court recently heard arguments challenging whether he even had the authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
If the Court rules against him, much of the expected future tariff revenue could disappear entirely.
Lower courts have already ruled aspects of Trump’s tariff agenda illegal, and if the Supreme Court agrees, that could dismantle his entire $2,000 promise to Americans.
While Trump paints tariffs as a national bank account, analysts argue they’ve already cost average Americans more than they realize.
Independent estimates show tariffs currently cost households in the US between $1,600 and $2,600 a year. That’s alarmingly close to the $2,000 “dividend” Trump is proposing, meaning Americans are already footing the bill upfront.
Economist Erica York put it bluntly: removing the tariffs might be a better deal than handing out checks.