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Fighter jet and commercial pilot reveals theory about Learjet that crashed 35,000ft in Florida
A former US fighter pilot who now flies commercial aircraft has shared his theory about what may have caused the Learjet plane to plunge thousands of feet before crashing into a Florida neighborhood, killing all nine people on board.
Ryan, who runs the aviation YouTube channel Max Afterburner, has been examining the aircraft's final moments, including its communications with air traffic control and the weather conditions it encountered.
The Bombardier Learjet 60 was flying at approximately 35,000 feet over South Florida on Sunday, traveling from Texas to the Bahamas, when it encountered severe weather conditions, with the pilot reporting both icing and turbulence in the audio.
Former fighter pilot reveals terrifying theory on Learjet incident
According to Ryan, the crew reported moderate turbulence and light clear icing, but initially indicated that the conditions were manageable, with the co-pilot subsequently requesting permission to climb to 37,000 feet after the aircraft began encountering precipitation.
Less than 30 seconds after reporting that the ice was manageable, the crew declared a Mayday, where the aircraft entered a rapid descent, reportedly losing altitude at around 10,000 feet per minute before crashing onto a Florida road.
Ryan believes the jet may have encountered a powerful storm core, potentially triggering a loss of control, but also raised the possibility of a phenomenon known as “Mach tuck” contributing to the disaster.
In his video, Ryan examined the aircraft's flight path and highlighted a particularly concerning section of weather radar, explaining that the Learjet appeared to have flown into a storm core while travelling at around 35,000 feet.
The former fighter pilot warned that attempting to fly over powerful storm systems can be extremely dangerous, as they can develop rapidly and produce powerful updrafts.
He said: "They always told us in aviation, whether it was fighter jets, commercial aviation, never fly over top of one of these things."
Explaining why, he added: "These storm cores build so fast. I mean, I've been flying next to these things and I've literally seen what looks like a couple thousand feet of increase in the size of the cloud over the course of like 15, 20 seconds."
Ryan also highlighted the potential presence of hail and ice inside thunderstorms, suggesting these conditions could have contributed to the aircraft's difficulties, especially after the crew had reported light clear icing despite the outside air temperature being approximately minus 47 degrees Celsius.
Ryan explained that ice crystals can potentially interfere with airspeed probes, while severe turbulence can make it difficult for pilots to maintain control of an aircraft.
He said the combination of those conditions could have been particularly dangerous.
The pilot also suggested that the crew's decision to climb may have been an attempt to escape the storm, although he acknowledged that the precise reason for the manoeuvre was.
Ryan reconstructed the aircraft's final moments using a graphic representation of its flight path, suggesting the jet began climbing after entering the storm core, before subsequently entering a steep dive.
At that point, he believes it may have exceeded its maximum operating speed of Mach 0.81, explaining that excessive speed can make an aircraft increasingly difficult to control, particularly if its flight surfaces have sustained damage.
The response suggested that investigators had already identified evidence of a possible breakup before the aircraft struck the ground.
"We do have some evidence that there was some breakup of the aircraft before impact," the investigator said. "We're still seeking to determine that."
Ryan described the revelation as significant, suggesting it could help explain why the crew had been unable to recover from the dive.
"If part of the tail failed first, the dive was the result," he explained. "Part of the tail fails, it goes into a dive, they can't recover, and then Mach tuck is basically besides the point."
What exactly is 'Mach tuck'?
Ryan also explained the aerodynamic phenomenon known as Mach tuck, which he believes could be relevant to understanding the Learjet's final moments.
"A Learjet 60's maximum operating speed is Mach 0.81, but even below Mach 1, air speed over the top of a wing can reach the speed of sound and a shock wave forms,” he claimed.
"You go faster and that shock slides back along the wing and the center of lift slides back with it. So, the nose pitches down.
"Nose down means faster and faster means more nose down. So, it kind of feeds itself.
"If Mach tuck was involved, I don't think it necessarily lit the match. I think it would be the gasoline on top of this because they're flying through that storm core."
Investigations still remain ongoing into the devastating crash that killed all nine people onboard.