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Are 'tariff dividends' coming in January after Trump promised to give $2,000 to almost everyone in America
We're days into the new year, and many Americans are left wondering if President Donald Trump's promised $2,000 "tariff dividend" checks will finally arrive. For months, Trump has been promoting the idea of returning tariff revenue to the public, with projections for 2026 showing an emphasis on middle- and lower-income groups.
In November, Trump renewed his plan to distribute $2,000 payments to these groups, citing the revenue from tariffs.
During a December 2 cabinet meeting, Trump stated (via USA Today), “Next year is projected to be the largest tax refund season ever, and we're going to be giving back refunds out of the tariffs, as we have taken in literally trillions of dollars. We're going to be giving a nice dividend to the people in addition to reducing debt.”
However, experts have raised doubts about whether the tariff revenue will be enough to fund such payments.
What is the tariff revenue situation?
Tariff-related revenue has been substantial, but not enough to cover the proposed checks. In 2025, the U.S. Treasury generated $195 billion from tariffs, but sending out checks could cost an estimated $300 billion.
The Bipartisan Policy Center estimates net tariff revenue in 2025 will total $194.9 billion. The Tax Foundation forecasts that tariffs will generate $2.1 trillion over the next decade, though this estimate drops to $1.6 trillion when accounting for economic repercussions and foreign retaliation.
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These revenue figures are far below the cost of sending out $2,000 payments to every qualifying American. While Trump has stated that a proposal for dividend checks will be brought to Congress, there is still uncertainty surrounding the future of this plan.
Legislative hurdles and future proposals
Per USA Today, for the tariff dividend plan to become a reality, legislation would likely need to be passed by Congress, much like the federal stimulus checks issued in 2020 and 2021.
A bill, known as the American Worker Rebate Act of 2025, was introduced by Senator Josh Hawley in July, proposing the distribution of checks worth between $600 and $2,400 from tariff revenue. However, the bill has not advanced beyond committee.
White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett confirmed in December that Trump is planning to bring forth a proposal for the checks in 2026, though he noted that funding could come from a variety of sources, not just tariffs.
“We get taxes, we get tariffs, we get revenue from lots of places, and then Congress decides how to spend those monies,” Hassett explained during a CBS interview.
What's next?
Despite the discussions and plans, no concrete steps have been taken to issue the dividend checks as of January 2026. Additionally, the Supreme Court’s deliberations on Trump’s tariffs could further complicate matters, as its ruling could affect the legality of the tariffs themselves.
While the tariff dividend checks remain uncertain, the broader issue of stimulus payments has also seen other proposals. Trump has floated the idea of issuing $5,000 “DOGE dividends” in the past, though those plans seem to have stalled. Additionally, in December 2025, he announced a one-time $1,776 check for military service members.
For now, American taxpayers should stay vigilant for any updates and be cautious of potential scams, as fraudsters have exploited the uncertainty surrounding stimulus payments.