World7 min(s) read
Published 11:17 20 May 2026 GMT
Scientists and weather experts have shared their thoughts on the true effects that a Super El Niño could have on the world's climate.
Forecasts point towards the developing El Niño in the Pacific Ocean becoming one of the strongest on record.
As a result of this weather phenomenon, we could experience record global temperatures and a massive impact on life on Earth, according to the BBC.
CNN further reported that experts have suggested that parts of the Pacific Ocean have been warming quickly, with sea surface temperatures rising to around 0.5°C above normal.
By comparison, a "Super El Niño" is when the temperature increases by more than 1.5°C.
While an El Niño is a naturally occurring weather cycle in the Pacific Ocean that can impact hundreds of millions of people who live in and around the region, its effects can last for decades.
If a "Super" El Niño is to hit the area, weather and economies around the world will change for good, even after the Pacific has cooled - but why is this?
In an explanation to VT, the UK's Met Office explained what a regular one is like: "El Niño is a naturally occurring weather cycle in the Pacific Ocean characterized by unusually hot waters near the equator, which changes the circulation of air in the atmosphere.
"But the effects of El Niño do not stay limited to that part of the Pacific; they ricochet outward to affect weather and climate patterns around the globe."
However, a strong or "Super El Niño" is when the temperature increases by more than 1.5°C, with this occurrence possibly taking place this fall.
Scientists think it could result in 2027 becoming the warmest year on record, with the likelihood of a Super El Niño being increased by professionals in recent weeks.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) ENSO forecast page also details where the affected areas will be and how we will be impacted over the seasons.
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The Met Office further explained that there is "high confidence" that conditions will develop later this year, showing signs of it being a "large event".
Sea‑surface temperature anomalies could exceed 2 °C in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, though they clarified: "While some commentary refers to the potential for a 'Super El Niño', this is not a formal Met Office classification."
The NOAA is similar, as Michelle L’Heureux, NOAA’s ENSO team lead and a physical scientist at their Climate Prediction Center, told VT: "We do not have a definition for Super El Niño.
"Our most recent chances of various El Niño strengths are updated along with our monthly ENSO discussion (it is updated on the second Thursday of every month)."
Referring to the table on the monthly update, L'Heureux added: "No single category exceeds a 37% chance. There is currently a two-in-three chance of a 'strong to very strong' El Niño."
The Met Office further explained that a large El Niño would "increase the likelihood of elevated global average temperatures in 2026," possibly moving into 2027.
This would increase "the chance of further years temporarily exceeding 1.5 °C above pre‑industrial levels, with 2027 potentially exceeding 2024 as the warmest year on record."
The last Super El Niño occurred over the 2015-16 period, though experts have noted that past events aren't particularly helpful as no two El Niños are similar in their impact.
This is a topic that the NOAA has expanded on, as they explained: "Each El Niño is different, and they will not perfectly match the schematic.
"However, El Niño is also an opportunity because if you're in a location that is influenced by it, you can see these events developing many months in advance of their peak impacts and prepare for or mitigate its effects."
The Met Office acknowledged that the event will have indirect effects on Europe, with Southeast Asian nations and the US among those who will be more affected.
"It is important to stress that El Niño is just one of a number of climate drivers that can influence weather patterns," they explained.
"Any impacts will depend on how these drivers combine, and this will become clearer as forecasts continue to evolve later in the year."
The experts continued: "Globally, El Niño can influence weather patterns in a number of ways depending on the time of year.
"This includes increased drought risk in several regions, such as India, parts of the western Pacific, north‑east Australia, and the Amazon, as well as reduced activity in Atlantic tropical cyclones.
"However, even in seasons with fewer tropical cyclones overall, individual storms can still have significant impacts."
A Super El Niño is an exceptionally strong version of the naturally occurring El Niño weather cycle in the Pacific Ocean.
While a standard El Niño is characterised by unusually warm waters near the equator that alter global atmospheric circulation, a Super El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures rise by more than 1.5°C above normal.
This level of warming can trigger record global temperatures, widespread drought, disrupted rainfall patterns, and significant economic consequences around the world.
The term "Super El Niño" refers to an El Niño event of exceptional intensity — one that is powerful enough to cause far-reaching and long-lasting disruptions to weather systems globally.
It is worth noting that neither the Met Office nor NOAA uses "Super El Niño" as an official scientific classification, but the term is widely used to describe events where temperature anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific exceed around 2°C above average.
As of 2026, a Super El Niño has not officially been declared, but forecasts suggest conditions are developing.
NOAA currently gives a two-in-three chance of a "strong to very strong" El Niño forming, while the Met Office has stated "high confidence" that a large El Niño event will develop later this year.
Sea surface temperature anomalies could exceed 2°C in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, which would place it in Super El Niño territory.
The last Super El Niño occurred during the 2015–16 period and was one of the strongest on record.
Prior to that, notable Super El Niño events took place in 1997–98 and 1982–83.
Experts caution, however, that no two El Niño events are identical in their impacts, making direct comparisons between past and future events difficult.
The most significant Super El Niño events on record occurred in 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16. The 1997–98 event is often cited as the most powerful ever recorded, causing widespread flooding, drought, and an estimated $45 billion in economic damage globally.
If current forecasts are correct, 2026–27 could mark the next major Super El Niño.
The effects of a Super El Niño are wide-ranging and felt across the globe.
These include increased drought risk in regions such as India, parts of the western Pacific, north-east Australia, and the Amazon; reduced Atlantic tropical cyclone activity; record-breaking global temperatures; and knock-on economic impacts from disrupted agriculture and water supplies.
The Met Office notes that El Niño is just one of several climate drivers, meaning its precise effects depend on how it interacts with other weather systems at the time.
