A finance expert has weighed in on whether Donald Trump's promise to give $2,000 to almost everyone in America will ever happen.
As widely reported, the 79-year-old took to Truth Social to announce that every American will receive a “dividend of at least $2000” thanks to the nation’s newfound wealth from his tariff policies.
He framed this payout as a result of the tariffs he has implemented, which he argues have made the U.S. the “richest, most respected country in the world".
"People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS!" he wrote. "With Almost No Inflation, and A Record Stock Market Price. 401k’s are Highest EVER. We are taking in Trillions of Dollars and will soon begin paying down our ENORMOUS DEBT, $37 Trillion.
"Record Investment in the USA, plants and factories going up all over the place," he added.
Trump has announced that he will give $2000 to Americans. Credit: Andrew Harnik / Getty
While the president has promised a $2,000 payout to every American, he specified that it would exclude “high-income people".
However, Trump did not clarify what income level would qualify as "high income," leaving the exact criteria for eligibility uncertain.
Expert Analysis from a Finance Professional
In a video shared on the YouTube channel, Tim Talks Finance, the expert spoke about whether the president will give Americans a payout.
Tim stated that just hours after Trump’s announcement, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appeared to downplay the plan.
According to ABC News, Bessent clarified that he had not discussed the proposed "dividend" with Trump directly, and shared that the money may come "in lots of forms".
Tariffs as a Source of Funding: The Economics of the Plan
The core of Trump’s proposal is the idea that tariffs, taxes on imported goods, would generate enough revenue to fund a nationwide dividend. But how realistic is this? The finance expert pointed out several problems with the math.
"When a U.S. company buys something from another country, the U.S. government adds a tax. The company importing the goods is the one that pays this tax. There’s a common myth that the country selling the goods, like China, pays the tariff," he said.
"That’s not how it works. The cost falls on the American company, which then usually passes that cost on to you, the consumer, through higher prices," he said, adding that it essentially acts as a hidden tax.
Despite this, Trump’s proposed $2,000 payout would cost around $300 billion if distributed to approximately 150 million Americans earning under $100,000.
As of September 30, the federal government had collected roughly $195 billion in tariff revenue - far less than what would be required to fund the dividend.
Experts like the Tax Foundation estimate the net tariff revenue currently available to be just $90 billion, which is still short of what would be needed for the payouts, per The Guardian.
There are many problems with Donald Trump's announcement. Credit: Samuel Corum / Getty
Legal and Fiscal Challenges Ahead
Even if the tariff revenue could cover the costs, the logistics of distributing payments to millions of Americans pose significant legal and fiscal hurdles.
According to Tim, "For these $2,000 checks to be real, a bill would have to be written, passed by both the House and the Senate, and then signed by the President."
He pointed out that Congress holds the "Power of the Purse," meaning only lawmakers, not the president, can authorize the spending of government funds.
Further complicating matters is the ongoing legal debate over the president’s authority to impose tariffs without Congressional approval. The Supreme Court recently heard arguments on this issue, which could impact the feasibility of any tariff-based dividend.
Will Americans receive a $2000 check? Credit: IronHeart / Getty
While some of Trump’s supporters praised the idea of a $2,000 payout, others questioned whether it was another campaign-style promise that might never materialize.
As of now, it remains more of a concept than a fully-formed policy, and the likelihood of it coming to fruition is unclear.