Here's the average tax refund Americans can expect after Trump Administration's $1,000 claim

President Donald Trump announced in January that this could be the “largest tax refund season of all time”, promising taxpayers hundreds if not thousands of dollars in a refund.

The White House said the average taxpayer could get an additional $1,000 or even more.

But how much can the average American taxpayer actually expect to see returned?

In his declaration on January 26, the president referred to data which had been supplied by investment bank Piper Sandler in October 2025.

Since then, there have been new bills created that propose tax refunds for people most hit by Trump’s tariff policies as business costs continue to trickle down to consumers.

The average return will be less than Trump promised

According to a report from the Internal Revenue Service in March 2026, the average amount of tax refunded to a US citizen was $3,571.

The previous average figure Americans received was around $3,221, according to the IRS report.

While it is an improvement from last year, the increase is only around $350, nowhere near as significant a rise as the $1,000 promised in January’s announcement.

Director of tax policy at the Center for American Progress (CAP) Corey Husak said: “Americans were promised meaningful relief, but the numbers tell a very different story.

“Refund increases are modest, uneven, and heavily tilted toward the highest earners, while other Trump policies are driving costs higher for working families.”

Households earning more will get a much bigger payout

Analysis from CAP showed that households with an income below $100,000 can only expect to see an increase of around $210 and only around 48.8 percent of people will see more money on their return.

Households earning $200,000 or more could see increases of around $2,000 on their return.

White House spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement to CNBC that it is “premature to make any pronouncements about the average”.

“What the data does show, however, is that millions of working class Americans who were meant to get tax relief - through no tax on overtime, tips, or Social Security - are taking advantage of President Trump’s historic tax cut legislation," he added.

The cost of living continues to rise for Americans as the price of groceries, healthcare and housing increase rapidly as businesses feel the effects of Trump’s new tariffs.

So, while receiving additional dollars on tax refunds will be helpful to some, it might not be enough to cover the ever-increasing cost of living for the average American.

Featured image credit: Leon Neal / Getty Images