If Trump and Obama Went Head-to-Head in the 2028 Election, Here’s Who Would Win

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By Tom Wood

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A poll has revealed who would win between Donald Trump and Barack Obama if they were to both run in the 2028 US Presidential election. 

Of course, neither can - or should, at least - be able to run, thanks to the 22nd Amendment which states that one person can only serve two terms in office, but it’s an interesting thought experiment nonetheless. 

Both Trump and Obama - regardless of your personal politics - have been popular and compelling candidates and would surely create a keenly contested race if they were to run in 2028. 

So, who would come out on top?

Donald Trump vs Barack Obama in 2028 - who would win?

Obama won his first election in 2008 before he was reelected in 2012. 

His successor was Donald Trump, who achieved success in the 2016 election and again in 2024, with his terms sandwiching the four years of Joe Biden presidency. 

Donald Trump and Barack Obama pictured at Trump Donald Trump and Barack Obama pictured at Trump's first inauguration, 2017. Credit: Kevin Dietsch-Pool/Getty Images.

During his time at the top of the Republican Party, Trump has seen off strong candidates like Hilary Clinton and Kamala Harris, but never directly faced Obama at the polling booths. 

Until this hypothetical electoral poll, that is. 

A piece of research performed by the Daily Mail and J.L. Partners revealed the current state of mind among some American voters. 

They surveyed 1,013 registered US voters, and - as you might expect - it was a close one. 


52 percent of voters favored a return for Barack Obama, while just 41 percent wanted a third term of Trump. 

Let’s break things down even further, though. 

Hispanic voters were overwhelmingly pro-Obama, with 73 percent in his corner. 

Black voters also opted for Barack, with 68 percent preferring him to The Donald. 

But, it seems that Obama is the only Democratic candidate from recent history who could challenge Trump, as both Hilary Clinton and Kamala Harris were hypothetically defeated in this poll.

If you want to see how Trump polls against current Democratic hopefuls, here's a list.

Donald Trump has refused to rule out running again in 2028. Credit: Getty/Rebecca Noble Donald Trump has refused to rule out running again in 2028. Credit: Getty/Rebecca Noble

Trump has made no secret of the possibility he could run in 2028

Trump 2028 might seem a long way off at the moment, both in terms of time and the fact that the US Constitution prohibits him from running, but we’d be foolish to assume that it hasn’t crossed the current President’s mind

Earlier this year, he explained that ‘there are methods’ of obtaining the nomination a third time if he wished, adding that he is ‘not joking’ about the matter - in fact, he confirmed that 'loopholes have been discussed'.

Speaking to NBC News, Trump said: “A lot of people want me to do it,

“But, I mean, I basically tell them we have a long way to go, you know, it’s very early in the administration.”

He continued: “I like working.

“I’m not joking, but I’m not… it is far too early to think about it.”

He ominously added: “There are methods [through] which you could do it.”

So perhaps this poll isn’t so hypothetical after all - could Barack Obama come out of retirement to square off against Donald Trump in 2028?

It seems unlikely, but you’d be unwilling to rule anything out at this point.

Featured image credit: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images