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AI predicts who will win the 2028 US election amid new survey
AI has predicted who will emerge victorious in the 2028 US election, following a new survey that revealed the early frontrunners for the White House.
Although the presidential election is still two years away, speculation is already growing over who could succeed Donald Trump when his second term comes to an end.
While no major candidates have officially announced that they will enter the race, several familiar figures such as former Vice President Kamala Harris and current Vice President JD Vance are emerging as political contenders.
A new poll has offered an early look at who voters would like to see represent the Democratic and Republican parties.
New poll reveals frontrunners of the 2028 election
A survey, conducted by Focaldata and the Financial Times poll, was released on Sunday (October 11) and has shared which politicians currently have the strongest support in hypothetical presidential primaries.
The poll surveyed American adults between October 2 and October 5 and found that Harris was the most popular choice among Democratic candidates.
The former VP received 30% support, placing her ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom, who secured 15%.
New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg followed, with both having 9% support.
As for Republicans, Vance was the clear winner, receiving 38% backing from respondents asked about the party’s potential nominee.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio came second with 24%, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis received 9%.
The figures suggest that Harris and Vance could be heading toward a presidential showdown in 2028, although neither has secured a nomination and things could change before then.
AI predicts who could become the next president
Prediction markets are already offering their own estimates of who could win the next presidency.
The figures were published on Polymarket, a platform where traders can speculate on future events.
As of October 13, the market gave the following candidates approximate chances of winning the 2028 election:
- 20% to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- 13% to Jon Ossoff
- 10% to Gavin Newsom
- 8% to Marco Rubio
An AI assessment of the race also identified Vance at the top and called him "the single likeliest candidate in these markets," pointing to his position in the current administration and his close association with Trump.
One of his biggest potential advantages is his ability to appeal to the same political base that helped Trump secure the presidency.
The assessment highlighted "voters who favour stricter immigration policies, economic nationalism, and an ‘America First’ approach," suggesting Vance could "inherit much of that support".
However, being the leading contender doesn’t mean he is more likely to not win. With roughly 20% backing in the prediction market, there are several possible outcomes and factors that could work against him, such as his close connection with the current administration.
The AI assessment warned that the VP could struggle if "inflation, housing costs, or unemployment remain major concerns".
He could also face criticism over economic problems voters associate with the Republican administration, even if he develops his own campaign proposals.
A recent Reuters/ Ipsos poll conducted in mid-September found that just 35% of Americans approved of Trump’s performance as president. A subsequent September poll put his approval rating even lower, at 32%.
Figures cited from YouGov’s 'Direction of the United States' tracker also showed general concern about the country’s future.
According to those numbers, 64.4% of respondents believed the US was "off track," compared with 29.8% who felt it was heading in the right direction.
Such dissatisfaction could hurt Vance if voters see him as a continuation of Trump's presidency rather than a chance for change.