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The age group the US military will target first if World War 3 breaks out
Experts have revealed which age group the US military will call up first if World War 3 breaks out.
The Democratic Party has secured a sweeping victory in the 2026 US midterm elections, seizing control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
This is a major blow to President Donald Trump, whose military campaign in Iran has fueled public criticism.
But despite the election results, fears remain that the 80-year-old could escalate the war, which began on February 28 with the assassination of Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran.
Senator Chris Murphy recently revealed that he had been briefed on alleged plans for military operations against Tehran. He described the proposals as "insane" and warned they could lead to "devastating escalation".
Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson also claimed that Trump could be considering a nuclear strike against the country "within days".
Should the war escalate, questions have emerged about which Americans would be called up if the US reinstates the military draft, a system of compulsory service last used during the Vietnam War.
Which age group would be drafted first?
Guido Rossi, a research fellow at the University of South Florida's Global and National Security Institute, told The Mirror that 20-year-old men would be the first age group prioritized under the existing draft system.
"Preference is for 20-year-olds, followed by 21-24-year-olds, then 18 1/2-19 year-olds. Selectees report to designated Military Entry Processing Stations for medical screening and induction of up to 24 months. Responsibility then shifts to the Department of Defense/Department of War," he said.
"Per the 2025 Census, of roughly 16 million males 18-to-24 only four million would actually be eligible for military service under the current disqualification rate of 75% (a strict standard that may be relaxed in wartime)," Rossi added.
The researcher explained the age preference, saying it balances physical readiness with an American tradition of protecting younger men from dangerous overseas deployments.
"It is a balance between the age considered best for physical performance (declining for older recruits) and an American tradition of shielding younger men from overseas service (in other words combat, potentially). It's basically the sweet spot (or the least sour, perhaps?). The same thing happened for all previous wars," he said.
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Could millions of Americans be called into military service?
Christopher Lee of Foresight Strategic Advisors also weighed in on the possibility of a draft. He suggested the US could draw from a pool of recruits if compulsory service were reinstated.
He cited the Selective Service System's 2025 Annual Report to Congress, which reported that approximately 15 million men were registered within the relevant age range. He estimated that including those who had not registered could bring the total pool to around 18 million.
"Keep in mind, actual mandatory inductions would literally be a tiny fraction of that in real terms," he added.
Lee also said that military confrontation with Iran makes the reinstatement of a draft highly unlikely.
"In a conflict which would largely be fought in Gulf waters and by air - either by carrier-based aircraft, land-based heavy bombers (B-1, B-2 etc.) - there is very little likelihood of a draft," he said, adding: "The reason is simple: invading Iran with ground forces has the same practical military sense as would building a house on top of an active volcano."